Environmental Sustainability

Second Midterm (Take Home) Exam

Professor Womersley

(Worth 26.6% of final grade)

Due Thursday October 8th in class, or Friday October 9th by email.

 

Instructions

Answer all questions. If you don’t know an answer, put down what you do know. You may research answers. Cite important research other than material given in class or in the texts for the class. You must work alone.

 

 

Part One: Comprehension

(Short answers)

Answer all 5 (50%)

 

1)    What is the (English language) interpretation of the R-squared statistical result on the Lean and Rind 2009 paper, discussed in class. (In other words, define the statistic and explain what it means.)

 

The paper is at http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2009/Lean_Rind.html 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2)    From information given in either the 2001 Northeast Regional Assessment or the 2009 “Maine’s Climate Future,” explain the general prognosis for the average annual temperature change in Maine over the next century in some detail. Taking only this prediction into account, what state or states currently have a climate most like that of Maine in 100 years?

 

http://www.climatechange.umaine.edu/research/publications/climate-future

 

and

 

http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/reports.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) What effects will this change (in 2 above) have on Maine ecosystems and their flora and fauna? (Limit yourself to a brief summary.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) What effects will this change have on Maine agriculture?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5) What effects will this change have on the health of Maine residents?

 

 

Part 2: Essay/problem-solving questions. Do only one.

 

1) Write a short essay addressing only one out of the following four questions or problems. (40%)

 

  1. Summarize the primary conclusions that can be drawn from the Lean and Rind 2009 paper.

 

The paper is at http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2009/Lean_Rind.html

 

  1. Study the following reading from the IPCC report titled “Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change,” paying attention to the third table titled “Table SPM.2. Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late-20th century trend”:

 

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-direct-observations.html

 

Explain what the table means to you. Why is the language so conservative? Explain in detail why this is, with reference to scientific method and practices.

 

 

  1. What, if any, are the primary geopolitical ramifications of climate change? For the US? For developing nations? Include any positive effects with negative ones.

 

 

  1. What were the primary conclusions of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change? How does the approach differ, fundamentally, from a comparison of the costs and benefits of avoiding predicted change?

 

www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/Executive_Summary.pdf